This winter, the weather outside may or may not be frightful—but heating bills almost certainly will be. That’s due to the skyrocketing cost of distillate fuels, including diesel, jet fuel and Fuel Oil No. 2, the fuel used to heat homes with oil tanks.
In NJ, homes with heating oil are concentrated in rural areas: Cumberland, Salem, and some of Burlington Counties in the south, and Sussex, Warren and Hunterdon Counties to the northwest.
For these specific counties, it’s looking like a pricey winter.
50% National Increase Projected, Nearly 90% Increase vs. Last Year Seen Locally
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that 4.79 million households used heating oil in the 2023 to 2024 winter. Over 80% of them are concentrated in the Northeast.
In New Jersey, 198,050 of occupied residences rely on heating oil, according to the 2024 American Community Survey run by the Census.
Those residences aren’t equally distributed throughout the state. Instead, data from the EPA illustrates a distinct geographical separation.
As seen in the map here, the eastern side of NJ (light beige) relies almost entirely on natural gas, with areas of Bergen County showing gas usage for 90% of residences and electricity for the remaining 10%.
Meanwhile, western NJ shows a much higher reliance on heating oil. The strongest reliance can be found in Census Tract 3746, an area that encompasses the Stanhope area on the north side of Lake Musconetcong in Sussex County. There, 81% of households rely on heating oil.
Rates of fuel oil usage in Warren County are comparable to the southernmost parts of Salem and Cumberland County, with between 51% and 67% of households relying on fuel oil for heat.
In Census Tract 311.01, the tract that includes Blairstown (the yellow dot in the map above), 67% of residences use heating oil.
This winter, that’s bad financial news—and getting worse.
Less than a month ago, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) predicted a 31% increase in the cost of heating oil this winter. A Sept. 28 press release now predicts a 50% increase.
Residents of Warren County have already seen massive increases. For a one-year comparison, look at this Oct. 11, 2025 screenshot from cheapestoil.com, a website that compares the costs of heating oil from several local delivery companies.
This time last year, a Warren County resident could buy heating oil for between $2.84 and $2.99 a gallon.
Now, compare that to a screenshot from the evening of Oct. 6, 2026.
This year, those prices range between $5.45 and $5.58 a gallon—an 88% to 92% increase, nearly double.
Susan Haney owns Fuel-Rite Petroleum alongside her husband John. The business moved from Blairstown to Belvidere three years ago. About 95% of their business consists of home heating oil delivery, she said.
Although she’s worked in the heating oil delivery space for over 20 years, the recent price increases are unprecedented.
“A lot of suppliers are having some issues, but I’ve never seen oil this high ever. Ever,” she emphasized. “It’s historic. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Haney has also noticed a change in customer behavior. More customers are filling their oil tanks early in the season, worried that delay might bring an even greater increase in oil prices.
She worries about her customers, who she says have been “in shock” when she tells them the prices over the phone. For her own part, Haney maintains relationships with up to six suppliers at a time and maintains a 100,000-gallon capacity storage tank to make sure the business has contingency plans in case of emergency or supply challenges.
Faced with steep price increases, many heating oil customers wonder: Is it better to wait, in the hopes that prices go down? Or would it be smarter to buy now, before prices can increase further? Or take a balanced approach by filling the tank half now, and half later, cutting potential losses in half either way?
Haney isn’t sure what to tell them. But her own hope is that this can’t last forever.
“I don’t see it staying,” she said. “It’s not sustainable. People can’t afford it.”
Impacts from Iran and Ukraine: Conflict Comes Home
Dr. Karen Clay, professor of economics and public policy at Carnegie Mellon, isn’t so sure.
The cause of the problem is two part, she says. One part has been well-known since Feb. 28: the disruption in the international flow of crude oil caused by conflict with Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This is the reason that gas prices and distillates have been higher for months.
The U.S. has tried to mitigate these impacts with releases from the national Strategic Petroleum Reserve. After seven months of restricted oil flows and emergency reserve releases, the SPR fell to 283 million barrels of crude oil on Oct. 2, its lowest level since 1982.
Crude oil must be processed in refineries to produce distillates: jet fuel, diesel and heating oil. Those refineries are the second part of the problem, according to Clay. The oil market is an international arrangement, with crude oil drawn from one area of the world shipped to a refinery calibrated to its chemical consistency in another. With Ukrainian bombings of Russian refineries and tensions in the Middle East damaging refineries in the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, there are fewer refineries in operation worldwide to turn crude oil into distillates.
American refineries are operating full-bore, with a 92.5% utilization rate the week ending Sept. 25. But distillates produced in America don’t stay in America, not with countries worldwide dealing with the same international challenges and just as hungry for jet fuel and diesel. American refineries are equally willing to sell to international customers as to American customers. So domestic supply stays tight, and prices stay high.
On Oct. 5, the G7 announced an emergency stock release of 100 million oil barrels “to begin immediately over four months, including a frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days.” The price of diesel fell in response to the promise of new supply in a starved market. But without bringing damaged refineries back online or building new ones, a years-long process, Clay said the fix is temporary, and the core problem remains.
What if the conflict with Iran resolves tomorrow, oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz as plentifully as before and every damaged refinery magically comes online? Even that miraculous outcome wouldn’t lower prices right away, as every country will be rushing to fill its depleted emergency reserves. “The problem is the low inventories,” Clay said. “What’s going to be happening is refilling of some of the stocks as well.”
In her assessment, a complete solution to the oil and distillate price spike would be timed in months, not weeks, even in the most optimistic scenario. There isn’t much hope she can see for a quick fix.
Winter Is Coming. So What Now?
In a survey conducted by the Ridge View Echo, local homeowners who rely on heating oil said that they’re looking for alternatives.
Several have already invested, or plan to invest, in woodburning or pellet stoves. Some already have an electric heating option that they intend to use more often this winter. Others focus on lowering the thermostat, using thermal curtains and weatherstripping, and planning their oil purchases by comparing multiple suppliers and carefully timing their purchase.
But in a question about plans to prepare for the winter and heating costs, 38% of respondents said they still weren’t sure what they’d do.
Some don’t see any alternatives.
“Heating oil is my only form of heat and the only way to have hot water during the fall/winter season,” wrote a resident of Stillwater who entered her name as Sarah. “I’m on a fixed Veterans’s disability and don’t have a functioning wood or pellet stove. I will not be able to afford to heat my home this winter.”
Dr. Clay foresees supplementation as the most likely response, both in the short and long term. “If this persists, then I think we’ll see a more rapid transition towards heat pumps, which are probably the most viable of the options for people in more rural areas,” she said.
Elsewhere in the Northeast, some elected officials have pursued policy responses.
Governor Maura Healey of Massachusetts made headlines on Oct. 5 by announcing a “state of energy emergency” and expanding access to energy bill assistance.
In Maine, Senators Susan Collins and Angus King wrote to the White House requesting an emergency release from the Northeast Home Heating Oil Reserve. The reserve holds one million barrels of ultra-low sulfur distillate across four locations in Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and the New York Harbor area. The White House has not yet responded to the request.
Closer to home, the New Jersey Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) is available to offer assistance with heating bills. Participants in SNAP, TANF (Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) or Social Security’s SSI program are automatically qualified for LIHEAP assistance.
Then there is the oldest tactic of all: hoping, or praying, for an easy winter.
“If it’s a mild winter, it may not be too bad,” Clay said. “If it’s a really cold winter, it’s going to be not so great.”
For more information about the LIHEAP program in Warren County, contact NORWESCAP, Inc. in Phillipsburg.
Chip O'Chang is an educator, fiction writer, and lifelong resident of New Jersey. He has also written for My Life Publications and NJ Indy. He lives in the NJ Skylands with his partner, two cats, and and a bearded dragon.
- Chip O'Chang, Contributing Writerhttps://ridgeviewecho.com/author/chip-ochang-contributing-writer/
- Chip O'Chang, Contributing Writerhttps://ridgeviewecho.com/author/chip-ochang-contributing-writer/
- Chip O'Chang, Contributing Writerhttps://ridgeviewecho.com/author/chip-ochang-contributing-writer/
- Chip O'Chang, Contributing Writerhttps://ridgeviewecho.com/author/chip-ochang-contributing-writer/
